Beating the Odds

For the fi rst time since gaining indepen- dence, Malaysia’s government changed hands. On May 9, Barisan Nasional, a coalition of right-wing and center parties with the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) at its core, lost the general election to the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan, led by the 92-year-old former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Barisan Nasional won only 79 seats in Malaysia’s parliament to the 121 secured by Pakatan Harapan. The fall of the UMNO has come as quite a shock to the country, bringing to an end its 60-year rule. On May 10, Mahathir was sworn in as the seventh prime minister of Malaysia, becom- ing the world’s oldest leader.

Prior to the general election, few in the international community would have bet on the success of the opposition coalition. It was almost unanimously believed that Barisan Nasional would continue to rule, although many foresaw that it would struggle to win a parliamentary supermajority of two thirds. The victory of the opposition has thus at- tracted widespread attention, with many left confused as to how exactly Pakatan Harapan pulled it off. There were two reasons crucial to their success declining trust in the UMNO and the personal charisma of Mahathir.

Loss of trust

Founded in 1946, the UMNO is the oldest and most influential political party in Malaysia. It played an important role in leading the coun- try’s resistance against British colonial rule and Malaysian independence. Without the UMNO, today’s Malaysia would simply not exist. Due to historical reasons, the UMNO can only guarantee its rule by adhering to the principle of “Malays first” and safeguarding the rights of bumiputras, ethnic Malays, in a multi-ethnic country where they form the largest racial group. The UMNO’s governing ideology, built upon the protection of Malay interests, won the support of most Malays, while later Barisan Nasional, formed by Abdul Razak Hussein, then head of the UMNO and father of the recently defeated Prime Minister Najib Razak, catered to the broader interests of non-Malays. This system sur- vived for several decades, but more recently Malaysian society has undergone subtle changes, with more and more people dissat- isfi ed with the distribution of benefi ts based on ethnicity.

While many ethnic Malays hoped that the UMNO would stick to the “Malays first” policy, they also began to demand that more attention be paid to issues such as environmental protection, medical care and education. In the past, the UMNO needed only to give Malays more benefits and fa- vorable treatment to secure support and maintain its rule, but in recent years, it has been forced to focus on economic growth, infrastructure, and civil rights and liberties. The UMNO has also achieved little in the way of political reform, especially in the promotion of fair, democratic and transpar- ent elections. Najib, who was until his defeat president of the UMNO and chairman of Barisan Nasional, launched the 1Malaysia program in 2010 to promote ethnic harmo- ny, national unity and efficient governance to this end. Nonetheless, Najib’s reforms failed. Ethnically Chinese voters were un- happy with Barisan Nasional’s neglect of their interests and angry with the Malaysian Chinese Association, the Chinese party in the coalition, for blindly following the UMNO and failing to protect their welfare. As a result, most ethnically-Chinese Malaysians cast their votes for the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP), the second largest party in the Pakatan Harapan alliance.

Before the recent election, the Najib administration redrew the boundaries for more than a third of Malaysia’s parliamentary constituencies, assigning a larger number of opposition voters to fewer seats and dividing constituencies along ethnic lines. The move further added to discontent among those who already felt disillusioned with the coun- try’s democratic process and resulted in a further loss of support from Malay voters. In addition, the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal, in which a large amount of money from a development fund owned by the Malaysian Government was embezzled, has been a source of sustained public outcry, with some of the money allegedly ending up in Najib’s personal bank account.

Although Najib later denied the allegations, his reputation had been irreversibly tarnished in the eyes of the public, with his wife’s extrava- gant lifestyle further consolidating his image as one of corruption and largesse. Many called for Najib’s resignation, to no avail until this year’s election provided a platform for the public to vent their dissatisfaction.

Force of personality

The personal charisma of Mahathir is the oth- er key factor in the UMNO’s defeat. Mahathir, who served as Malaysian Prime Minister from 1981 to 2003, is one of the most important leaders in Malaysian history. Malaysia expe- rienced a period of rapid modernization and economic growth under his leadership, and the country’s export-driven economic model during this time saw it dubbed one of the Tiger Cub Economies alongside Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. When he re- tired from his post as president of the UMNO in October 2003, the party was reluctant to let him go, with some ministers and offi cials even in tears.

During the 2004 general election, many supporters voted for the UMNO out of loyalty to its former leader, despite his retirement. But Mahathir’s retreat from politics after 2004, especially a high-profi le fallout with his succes- sor Abdullah Badawi, dealt a heavy blow to the support of the UMNO and Barisan Nasional, al- though he later rejoined the party after Abdullah was replaced by Najib in 2009.

The UMNO was unable to secure the su- permajority necessary to pass amendments to the Malaysian Constitution in two consecutive general elections in 2008 and 2013, and in the meantime lost further ground in multiple con- tested state legislatures. Although Mahathir’s absence was not the main reason for the UMNO’s failure in these areas, the party was plagued by a string of problems without him and it was ultimately unable to replace the force of his leadership.

In 2015, Mahathir attacked Najib over the 1MDB scandal, which intensified public grievances toward the incumbent prime minister. In 2016, Mahathir again quit the UMNO in light of the party’s support for Najib despite the escalating corruption scandal. In 2017, he founded Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, joining with Pakatan Harapan and establishing the opposition coalition as a powerful rival to Najib.

Mahathir was selected as the Pakatan Harapan candidate before the 2018 election, which greatly boosted the coalition’s confi- dence. Although some questioned Mahathir’s age, he was still able to attract support from younger voters. An increasing number of Malaysian citizens saw Mahathir as their only hope of ousting the Najib administration and began to long for the rose-tinted era when he was in power. Following the election, some in the media even suggested that it was Mahathir alone who had defeated Barisan Nasional.

Challenges ahead

The return of Mahathir to power is a refl ec- tion of the people’s choice. However, the longest-serving prime minister in Malaysian history faces a difficult domestic situation. While the UMNO lost the election, it received the most votes of any party and could still pose a challenge to Mahathir’s rule. There is also talk of a power struggle within Pakatan Harapan. According to an agreement signed by the leaders of all four of Pakatan Harapan’s component parties in January, Mahathir must relinquish his position to his former political rival and de-facto leader of the coalition Anwar Ibrahim, now that the latter was released from prison and given a royal pardon. Mahathir, however, will not readily hand power to Anwar because he has made every effort to bring his son Mukhriz Mahathir into the fold. The stage is set for a standoff between Mahathir and Anwar, which could dominate the landscape of Malaysian politics for a long time to come.

The DAP will also seek more political and economic power for itself and the ethnic Chinese it represents in a society dominated by Malays. Contention between Malays and Chinese is set to continue along with the policy of “Malays fi rst,” which will likely be maintained regardless of whether Mahathir or Anwar is in power.

It has taken 45 years from its establish- ment by Abdul Razak Hussein in 1973 for the Barisan Nasional coalition to be defeated in Malaysia’s parliament. Razak would never have imagined that when the coalition did eventually fall from grace, it would be in large part due to the actions of his own son. Neither would he have envisaged that it would be Mahathir, a man whom he respect- ed, who brought it down.

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