How Has World Economy Changed Since 2008？

　　On September 15， 2008， Lehman Brothersfiled for bankruptcy protection， a sign of theescalation of the U.S. subprime crisis towarda global financial crisis. Now， the world economyis stepping out of crisis and marchingtoward recovery. Five years after the crisisroiled the world， in what ways has the globaleconomy changed？

　　Five years ago， the global economicgrowth rate stood at 2.81 percent， while itwill be 3.1 percent this year (all data for 2013are predicted numbers). The growth rate fordeveloped economies was 0.07 percent in2008 and will be 1.2 percent in 2013， andthe growth for emerging economies was 6.09percent in 2008 and with a prediction of 5percent for 2013.

　　Five years ago， the yields for 10-yearTreasury bonds in the United States， Europeand Japan were 3.72 percent， 4.19 percentand 1.54 percent， respectively， while thenumber declines to the current 2.91 percent，2.05 percent and 0.73 percent， respectively.In 2008， 80 out of the top 100 banks selectedby The Banker were from developedcountries and only 20 from emerging economies.Five years later， 72 are from developedcountries and 28 are from emerging economies.The United States had 13 banks onthe 2008 list， Germany had nine and France，six， while the United States now has 16， andboth Germany and France have seen theirnumbers drop to five a piece.

　　The results are not what many had imagined.More importantly， we can learn fromthe crisis.

　　First， the global economy is constantlyadjusting and re-adjusting. During the pastfive years， emerging markets enjoyed blisteringgrowth while developed countries weremired in trouble. The International MonetaryFund estimated the total GDP of emergingeconomies will approach or even outpacethat of developed countries in 2013. Butnow， developed countries are speeding upand emerging markets are slowing down.Economic development itself is a circle， inwhich developed countries and emergingmarkets take turns to develop and to takea breath amid economic slowdowns. Onlyin this way can the global economy havea steady stream of growth momentum.Therefore， the current slowdown in economicgrowth in developing countries is nota crisis. Instead， it’s a periodical need for theworld economy to develop in a sustainablefashion and to improve its structures forgrowth. China’s choice to slow down is a rationalone.

　　Second， a crisis is a process ofpowerreshuffling. The United States has somehowbenefited from the crisis because it nowhas more growth momentum and morepowerful banks than before， risks havebeen phased out of the economy and abetter economic structure has taken hold.Europe is the biggest loser in the crisis， withthe declining competitiveness of its banksand the plummeting status of the euro.Emerging markets edged down after peakingduring the crisis. They have many flawsin the structure of their economy and theirfinancial markets. Great development gapsexist among emerging markets. Marginalizedemerging economies， such as India andIndonesia， are on the verge of breakdown.Finally， the global financial market ison the rise in general. But some emergingmarkets have accumulated asset bubblesin the process. An outburst of asset bubblesin some emerging economies has causedregional financial turbulence.

　　Global economic recovery is a roundaboutand turbulent process full ofuncertainties. Therefore， we should beextremely careful. The Lehman Brothersincident indicates that a new one may be approachingus.